As Americans prepare to head to the polls to choose between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, Wedbush Securities has released a comprehensive analysis of how each potential administration could impact Tesla’s future prospects.
The Musk Factor
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s strong public support for Donald Trump and vocal criticism of Kamala Harris has created a divisive environment among Tesla owners. This political stance has led to a split in the consumer base, with some customers embracing Musk’s right-wing position while others have begun distancing themselves from the brand.
Trump Presidency Scenario
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives identifies several key implications for Tesla under a potential Trump administration:
Advantages:
- Tesla would gain a “clear competitive advantage” in a “non-EV subsidy environment”
- Company would benefit from its established scale and scope
- Musk’s personal relationship with Trump could prove advantageous
- Potential acceleration of Full Self-Driving and autonomy initiatives
- Could accelerate 2026/2027 autonomous driving goals to match China’s timeline
Challenges:
- Musk’s vocal Trump support might negatively impact US consumer demand
- Harsher stance on China could trigger retaliatory policies
- Potential trade war complications affecting Tesla’s Chinese operations
- Wall Street views Chinese “wild card” scenario negatively
Harris Presidency Scenario
- Likely expansion of EV tax credits benefiting all electric vehicle manufacturers
- Unionized legacy automakers (General Motors, Ford, Stellantis) would see advantages
- “Neutral to slight negative impact” expected for Tesla
- Policy continuity with current Biden administration likely
Wedbush notes that Harris has indicated she would largely maintain President Biden’s current policies, suggesting fewer dramatic changes to the EV landscape compared to a Trump presidency.
The analysis particularly emphasizes the Trump scenario’s implications, as it represents a more significant departure from current policies than a Harris administration would likely pursue.
