JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta toured Tesla’s Fremont, California plant this month and sat down with the company’s investor relations team. What came out of that visit is a note that lays out, in more detail than usual, where Tesla says its robotaxi push, its next software release, and its humanoid robot program actually stand right now. The bank kept its price target on Tesla stock $TSLA at $475.
Tesla is holding back on Model Y robotaxis
One detail stands out. Tesla is not rushing to add more Model Y vehicles to its robotaxi fleet, and the company told JPMorgan this is on purpose. Management said it is confident it can scale up Cybercab, its purpose-built robotaxi vehicle, in the near term, and that confidence appears to be steering near-term fleet decisions.
Tesla launched its robotaxi service with Model Y cars in Austin back in June 2025 and later expanded into a few more cities, so a pullback on Model Y additions now points to a company betting its future on the two-seat, wheel-free Cybercab instead.
FSD V15 gets called a step-change
Tesla told JPMorgan that FSD V15 amounts to a big leap forward, on the same scale as the jump from V13 to V14. The release is built around seven core technologies, and about 40% of them are already running in the robotaxi fleet in Austin, where early feedback has been encouraging.
Tesla also said it is working to avoid regressions in everyday driving behavior as it adds these new capabilities, and the company sees V15 as the main path toward scaling unsupervised FSD more broadly. The current HW4 computer, Tesla reaffirmed, can already run V15 and handle unsupervised driving. Still, a newer AI4.5 compute system is in the works, and it is meant to keep pace with rising compute needs, about 10% more processing power and roughly double the memory, as robotaxi models scale and context windows grow larger.
Tesla shipped V14 in October 2025, its first major FSD update in about a year, and Elon Musk called an earlier V14.3 build the “last piece of the puzzle” back in April. So V15 now joins a line of releases each pitched, in turn, as the one that finally gets Tesla to full autonomy.
Cybercab is only the beginning of the lineup
According to the note, Cybercab is just the first vehicle Tesla plans to build on this platform. More vehicle types are coming as the platform develops, and JPMorgan pointed to the Obovan, a concept Tesla showed off at its October 10 event last year, as one example of what might follow. The plant itself, which Gupta described as roughly 5 million square feet, is where Tesla is running its “unboxed” manufacturing process for Cybercab.
On the robotics side, Tesla told JPMorgan that Optimus remains on track to begin production in the coming months. Commercial sales to outside buyers could start as early as the second half of 2027. The Gen 3 version of the robot will not be shown publicly until closer to the start of production.
The note landed right as investors were bracing for an upcoming Cybercab event. Tesla shares $TSLA had jumped about 4.2% the day before on that anticipation, then slipped roughly 0.5% to around $349 the next day. The stock $TSLA is still down about 22% for the year in 2026. JPMorgan’s $475 target leaves plenty of room above where shares sit now, even as the bank’s own note largely repeats timelines and claims Tesla has made before, some of which have already slipped past their original dates.
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