S&P Global Mobility forecasts global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales to reach 15.1 million units in 2025, representing a 30% year-over-year increase.
This projection would account for 16.7% of global light vehicle sales, up from 11.6 million units and 13.2% market share in 2024.
Regional Market Analysis
United States
The U.S. market is expected to demonstrate robust growth with BEVs reaching an 11.2% market share, reflecting a significant 36% year-over-year increase.
China
As the world’s largest EV market, China is projected to maintain strong adoption rates with BEVs capturing a 29.7% market share, showing a 19.7% year-over-year growth.
Central and Western Europe
The European market is expected to see the largest growth, with BEVs projected to attain a 20.4% market share and a notable 43.4% year-over-year increase.
Industry Challenges and Considerations
The global EV sector faces several significant challenges in 2025:
The industry must navigate uncertainties surrounding:
- Charging infrastructure development
- Grid power capacity
- Battery supply chain stability
- Global sourcing trends
- Tariff and trade barriers
- Technological advancement pace
- Policy support requirements for transitioning from fossil fuels
Additionally, political factors, including potential policy changes under the incoming U.S. administration, could significantly impact the sector’s growth trajectory.
Market Implications
While there are hurdles like fluctuating consumer demand and uneven policy backing, the anticipated increase in EV sales shows a healthy upward trajectory.
This growth highlights the ongoing progress towards vehicle electrification.
This trend persists as major markets adapt to evolving economic conditions and regulatory frameworks.
Expert Commentary
Colin Couchman, Executive Director of Global Light Vehicle Forecasting at S&P Global Mobility, emphasizes the challenges ahead:
“2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new US administration adds fresh uncertainty from day one. A key concern is how ‘natural’ EV demand fares as governments rethink policy support.”
This analysis points to a transformative year ahead for the global EV industry, filled with significant opportunities.
However, substantial challenges will also require careful navigation by industry stakeholders.