Key Q4 2024 Consensus Figures
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its company-compiled consensus for Q4 2024 deliveries, aggregating expectations from leading sell-side analysts.
The consensus projects:
- Total vehicle deliveries: 506,763 units
- Model 3 and Model Y deliveries: 476,398 units
- Other models: 31,755 units
The full-year 2024 consensus projects total global deliveries of 1,801,709 vehicles.
Contributing Analysts
The consensus comprises projections from 26 prominent firms:
Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, New Street Research, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Well Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Comparison with 2023 Performance
Q4 2023 Results
- Total deliveries: 484,507 units
- Model 3 and Model Y: 461,538 units
- Other models: 22,969 units
Full Year 2023
Total global deliveries: 1,808,581 vehicles
Analysis and Context
To match its 2023 delivery numbers, Tesla would need to deliver approximately 515,000 vehicles in Q4 2024 – which would set a new quarterly record for the company.
While the consensus suggests Tesla may not reach its 2023 delivery figures this year, this should be viewed in a broader context:
- Tesla’s business has diversified beyond automotive sales
- Tesla Energy division is showing strong growth
- The company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system development could enable future software licensing opportunities
The slight decline in annual deliveries doesn’t necessarily signal broader business challenges, considering Tesla’s expanding business model and diversification efforts.