Tesla’s Q3 Deliveries Expected to Surpass Estimates

Barclays analysts project Tesla will deliver 470,000 electric vehicles in the third quarter of 2024, representing an 8% year-over-year increase. This forecast exceeds the consensus estimate of 461,000 units.

For context, Tesla reported deliveries of 386,810 vehicles in Q1 and approximately 443,956 in Q2 of this year.

In a recent note, Barclays suggests that beating delivery estimates could bolster TSLA stock and alleviate investor concerns about the company’s fundamentals. The firm highlights China as a key contributor to Tesla’s Q3 performance.

Tesla’s presence in China has shown remarkable strength lately. In August 2024, the China Passenger Car Association reported that Tesla achieved its highest domestic sales for the year, with 86,697 vehicles sold.

September appears to be maintaining this momentum. Vehicle registration data, while not definitive, indicates robust weekly sales:

• Week ending September 8, 2024: Estimated 16,200 units
• Week ending September 15, 2024: Estimated 15,600 units (a 3.7% dip from the previous week)

It’s worth noting that Tesla does not officially disclose weekly sales figures, and registration data serves only as an indicator of potential sales performance.