Key Q4 2024 Consensus Figures
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its company-compiled consensus for Q4 2024 deliveries, aggregating expectations from leading sell-side analysts.
The consensus projects:
- Total vehicle deliveries: 506,763 units
- Model 3 and Model Y deliveries: 476,398 units
- Other models: 31,755 units
The full-year 2024 consensus projects total global deliveries of 1,801,709 vehicles.
Contributing Analysts
The consensus comprises projections from 26 prominent firms:
Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, New Street Research, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Well Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Comparison with 2023 Performance
Q4 2023 Results
- Total deliveries: 484,507 units
- Model 3 and Model Y: 461,538 units
- Other models: 22,969 units
Full Year 2023
Total global deliveries: 1,808,581 vehicles
Analysis and Context
To match its 2023 delivery numbers, Tesla would need to deliver approximately 515,000 vehicles in Q4 2024 – which would set a new quarterly record for the company.
While the consensus suggests Tesla may not reach its 2023 delivery figures this year, this should be viewed in a broader context:
- Tesla’s business has diversified beyond automotive sales
- Tesla Energy division is showing strong growth
- The company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system development could enable future software licensing opportunities
The slight decline in annual deliveries doesn’t necessarily signal broader business challenges, considering Tesla’s expanding business model and diversification efforts.
We’ve launched an official Tesla Owners Online Forum. Join early and claim your "Founding Fuel" badge.
