Tesla’s 4680 Battery Cell Will ‘Never Be Successful,’ Claims CATL Chairman

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL) Chairman Robin Zeng has delivered a stark assessment of Tesla’s 4680 battery cell technology, declaring it destined for failure. This bold statement emerged from a meeting between Zeng and Tesla CEO Elon Musk during the latter’s Beijing visit in April.

“We had a very big debate, and I showed him,” Zeng revealed. “He was silent. He doesn’t know how to make a battery. It’s about electrochemistry. He’s good for the chips, the software, the hardware, the mechanical things.”

Tesla’s 4680 Production Achievements and Expansion

Despite CATL’s skepticism, Tesla has marked significant milestones in its 4680 battery cell production:

• Successfully produced its 100 millionth 4680 battery cell at Gigafactory Texas
• Reached the 50 million unit milestone in June
• Currently expanding Gigafactory Nevada to include a dedicated 4680 cell production facility
• Targeting an ambitious long-term production capacity of 500 GWh

Strategic Partnership with CATL

A notable development in this story is Tesla’s licensing agreement with CATL for battery production technology in Nevada. According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters, this partnership is scheduled to launch in 2025.

Zeng’s Perspective on Tesla’s FSD Strategy and Musk’s Timelines

Zeng’s critique wasn’t limited to battery technology. While discussing Tesla’s autonomous driving approach, he offered a mixed assessment:

Support for FSD Strategy

“He’s all in,” Zeng told Reuters about Musk’s FSD strategy. “I think it’s a good direction.” He specifically endorsed Tesla’s unique camera-only approach to self-driving systems, which contrasts with competitors using multiple sensor technologies.

Timeline Skepticism

However, Zeng challenged Musk’s ambitious development timelines, suggesting that two-year promises might as well be “infinity.”

“His problem is overpromising. I talked to him,” Zeng elaborated. “Maybe something needs five years. But he says two years. I definitely asked him why. He told me he wanted to push people.”

Musk’s Response to Timeline Criticism

Addressing these timeline concerns at the Annual Shareholders Meeting, Musk acknowledged his tendency toward optimism

“Now, admittedly I’m a little optimistic sometimes. You know, I don’t have a complete lack of self awareness. But if I wasn’t optimistic, this wouldn’t exist this factory wouldn’t exist.” He further characterized himself as being “pathologically optimistic from birth.”

CATL’s American Manufacturing Ambitions

Looking toward future expansion, CATL expressed interest in establishing a U.S. production facility, contingent on approval from President-elect Trump’s administration.

“Originally, when we wanted to invest in the U.S., the U.S. government said no,” Zeng explained. “For me, I’m really open-minded… I do hope that in the future they are open to investments.”

This possibility seems more realistic given Trump’s August statement supporting Chinese companies building factories in the U.S., despite the recent 100-percent tariff on EV imports: “We’re going to give incentives, and if China and other countries want to come here and sell the cars, they’re going to build plants here, and they’re going to hire our workers.”