Tesla published a company-compiled analyst consensus for Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments on its Investor Relations site. And it put hard numbers in place ahead of its official quarterly report.
Tesla’s posted consensus calls for 422,850 vehicle deliveries in Q4 2025. And it puts Q4 2025 energy storage deployments at 13.4 GWh.
The release says Tesla compiled the vehicle delivery consensus from 20 analysts. Then it compiled the energy deployment consensus from 16 analysts.
For full-year 2025, the consensus estimate totals 1,640,752 vehicle deliveries. Yet that total implies an 8.3% decline from the prior year’s 1,789,226 deliveries that Tesla and reports cite for full-year 2024.
Tesla added a disclaimer in the release, saying it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts.” But the company still chose to publish the compiled figures as a public reference point.
Analysts and firms included
Tesla listed the firms that contributed analysts to the delivery consensus. And the list includes Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Wedbush, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Tesla’s move is unusual for a large public automaker. And it lands at a time when delivery figures can drive fast market reactions and loud headlines.
China activity and model demand
Tesla enters the final weeks of 2025 with signs of heavy delivery activity in China. And reports cite packed Tesla delivery locations as the quarter closes.
China remains key for Tesla’s two highest-volume products, the Model Y and Model 3. Still, the company faces tough local competition across price bands.
Data puts the Model Y at No. 1 in China’s RMB 200,000 to RMB 300,000 premium EV segment from January through November, with 359,463 units sold. Then the Model 3 ranks third in the same segment with 172,392 units over the same period.
Those tallies stand out since both vehicles sell at a premium to many domestic rivals in China. Yet Tesla has kept them relevant in the higher-priced part of the market as 2025 runs down.
Investors often treat quarterly deliveries as a scorecard. But Tesla leadership and many analysts tie the long-run story more tightly to Full Self-Driving and the Optimus humanoid robot.
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